Australia is a maritime country. Our economy relies on the sea. By 2025, the marine economy will have a combined value of $100 billion per year. In 44 years of satellite data, the Antarctic sea-ice area reached its lowest record in 2023 after a steep decline in 2016. Sea ice plays a crucial role in the Southern Ocean ecosystem by controlling the light available for the photosynthesis of the ocean and sea-ice plant microbes. Past changes in primary production have been observed by satellites.
However, the sea ice which is so important to primary production also makes it hard to observe this production, as satellites cannot penetrate it. My research addresses this major gap by quantifying the primary production hidden by sea ice using the flagship Australian Earth-System Simulator’s Earth system model, and combining and leveraging key observations, including automated floats and tagged-seal data, to evaluate the model. This research increases the accuracy of future projections, supports more reliable climate risk assessments, and enables adaptation planning for greater certainty concerning changes in the foundation of marine food webs due to the changing Antarctic sea-ice cover.